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gearing. The same factor that gives the buy-to-let landlord his massive
advantage in a rising property market is one of his worst enemies in a
falling market. With housing markets across the world teetering on the
brink of a chasm, now may very well be a good time to evaluate exactly
what gearing means to the average buy to let landlord.
What
exactly is gearing? It's basically another word for leverage. Imagine
you want to buy a $100,000 home. The bank or lender, if prudent, will
want you to put some of your own money up - to share the risk. If you
are buying your own home, they traditionally want you to stump up
between 5 and 15% to show you are serious. If you are buying an
'investment' property, until fairly recently the lenders wanted you to
cough up about 25% (many lenders have recently relaxed these criteria -
they will undoubtedly be punished for it by the market later!).
On
a $100,000 property, that would mean $25k - i.e. your leverage or
gearing on the property would be x4 (the value of the property divided
by the deposit). He has borrowed $75k and put down only a third of
that. In a rising market, that means that for every $25,000 the
property rises in price, he effectively doubles his money! So the
property only has to rise by a quarter, and he reaps a 100% growth in
the actual cash put down to buy the property in the first place. Are
rises of that size possible? Yes - many parts of the world have
recently seen strings of years where prices rose at least 25% year on
year.
So far so good, but what does your typical
buy-to-let landlord do when presented with a $25k windfall? Yes, that's
right. He re-mortgages property #1 and buys property #2 using the extra
$25k he just 'made'. Wow. Free money! He can actually buy another
$100,000 house with this 'new' deposit (it will be a smaller house, or
in worse condition than the first one of course, because houses like #1
now cost $125k!).
Our
landlord now 'owns' 2 properties, worth a total of $225,000 for the
grand initial investment of $25,000 . That means his gearing is now x9.
For every dollar his property rises, he makes a 'return' of $9 on his
initial investment deposit. Our buy to let investor now only needs an
11% rise in property prices to effectively double his cash again. Let's
imagine it happens.
Property goes up by 11% making
his 'portfolio' now worth $250,000. Remember that he can remortgage up
to 75% of the value of his properties. That means he can borrow up to
$187,500 in total. Seeing as he has so far only borrowed $150,000 (2 x
$75,000) he has another $37,500 he can draw on. What's a landlord to
do? Buy another house, using the $37.5k as the deposit, on a house
worth up to $150,000!
All well and good, you say.
He's becoming rich, rather rapidly. Until.... the market turns and
starts to fall. Our landlord now has $400,000 worth of property under
his control, for a tiny initial investment of only $25k. His gearing is
immense - x16 in fact. For every $1 the market rises, he 'makes' $16.
For every $1 it falls, he loses $16. In fact, a 6.25% fall in the
property market will wipe out his initial cash deposit, meaning that to
all intents and purposes, the buy to let landlord owns nothing. The
outstanding loans are the same as the value of the properties, so the
bank owns 100% or it. The landlord, of course, still has the
RESPONSIBILITY.
But, I hear you say, the landlord is
only really interested in the rental yield - as long as he can cover
the monthly payments with his rents, isn't he ok? Yes - until, for
example, the roof starts leaking, or a new boiler is required, or a bad
tenant stops paying. At which point he's up a certain creek without any
form of paddling implement.
This is the reason why
many professional property investors (;-) offloaded the last of their
investment properties last summer - the chances of a property crash
just looked too large to justify any possible future gains, given the
record house prices and low interest rates. As the song says - the only
way is down. If you still hold investment properties, it's probably too
late to sell. You'll have to hang on grimly until the market turns
again - probably around about 2008. Good luck with it! About
the AuthorPeter Parsons writes exclusively for www.mortgagedown.com ,
the free site offering articles and tips on how to reduce your mortgage
fast Peter
Parsons
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